2011: The Spark
- Protests erupted in March 2011 in Daraa as part of the Arab Spring.
- The Assad regime responded with brutal force, leading to widespread demonstrations.
- By the end of 2011, the conflict escalated into a civil war, with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) forming to oppose the regime.
2012: Escalation of Violence
- The conflict spread across Syria, with major cities like Aleppo and Homs becoming battlegrounds.
- Opposition groups began receiving support from regional and Western countries.
- Extremist groups, including al-Nusra Front (affiliated with al-Qaeda), entered the conflict.
- Refugees began fleeing in large numbers, marking the start of a major humanitarian crisis.
2013: The Rise of Extremism
- ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) emerged as a dominant force, capturing territory in northern and eastern Syria.
- The regime was accused of using chemical weapons, notably in Ghouta, leading to international condemnation.
- The U.S. and Russia brokered a deal for Syria to surrender its chemical weapons stockpile.
2014: The ISIS Surge
- ISIS declared a “caliphate” with Raqqa as its de facto capital.
- The U.S.-led coalition launched airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria.
- Kurdish forces, particularly the YPG, gained prominence by resisting ISIS, notably during the Siege of Kobani.
2015: Russia’s Intervention
- Russia intervened militarily to support Assad, altering the balance of power.
- Russian airstrikes targeted both ISIS and opposition groups, bolstering the regime.
- The conflict became more internationalized, with various countries pursuing their own interests in Syria.
2016: Aleppo Falls
- The Assad regime, backed by Russia and Iran, recaptured Aleppo, a significant opposition stronghold.
- The victory was a turning point, strengthening the regime’s position.
- Rebel forces were weakened, and the opposition became increasingly fragmented.
2017: ISIS Declines
- ISIS suffered major defeats, losing Raqqa to U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
- The regime regained control of key areas, while the Kurds solidified their autonomous administration in the north.
- Peace talks in Astana (led by Russia, Iran, and Turkey) began focusing on de-escalation zones.
2018: Regime Consolidation
- Assad’s forces reclaimed most of southern Syria, including Daraa, the birthplace of the revolution.
- Idlib became the last major opposition stronghold, dominated by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
- International focus shifted toward the humanitarian crisis and reconstruction efforts.
2019: Turkish Offensive
- Turkey launched Operation Peace Spring, targeting Kurdish-controlled areas in northern Syria.
- The U.S. partially withdrew troops, leading to Kurdish forces seeking protection from Assad and Russia.
- ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in a U.S. raid in Idlib.
2020: Stalemate and Economic Crisis
- Frontlines stabilized, with the regime controlling most of Syria but facing severe economic
2021: A Stalemate and Growing Humanitarian Crisis
- By 2021, the war had entered a phase of prolonged stalemate, with the Assad regime in control of most major cities but facing ongoing resistance in certain areas, such as Idlib.
- The economic crisis worsened due to sanctions, the collapse of the Syrian pound, and the effects of COVID-19, leading to widespread poverty and a dire humanitarian situation.
- The Kurdish Autonomous Administration continued to hold significant territory in the northeast, often clashing with Turkish forces and local Syrian Arab militias.
- Internationally, peace talks stagnated, and foreign powers, such as Russia and Iran, maintained military and political support for Assad, while the U.S. and Turkey backed various opposition groups and Kurdish forces.
2022: Efforts at Normalization
- Some Arab countries, notably the United Arab Emirates (UAE), began to re-establish diplomatic relations with the Assad regime, signaling a potential shift in regional dynamics.
- The regime, with Russian and Iranian support, focused on consolidating control over the country’s remaining opposition-held territories, especially in the north and northwest.
- Despite partial political shifts in the region, the conflict remained unresolved, with significant internal displacement, continuing poverty, and sporadic fighting in certain zones.
2023: Tensions Rise and Russia’s Strain
- Tensions between Syrian factions continued, with HTS, the Kurdish forces, and other rebel groups still holding pockets of territory.
- Russia’s support for the Assad regime began to face increased strain due to its involvement in the war in Ukraine, which diminished its ability to focus solely on Syria.
- The Syrian economy continued to deteriorate, and local uprisings started to emerge against the regime in areas under its control, fueled by frustration over living conditions and government corruption.
- In the northeast, Kurdish forces sought greater autonomy, while Ankara’s military campaigns against Kurdish groups persisted.
2024: The Fall of the Assad Regime
- On December 8, 2024, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), in coordination with other opposition factions, launched a major offensive that successfully captured Damascus, the capital, marking a pivotal moment in the war.
- The Assad regime’s loss of Damascus signaled the official collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government. President Assad and his family fled to Russia, granted asylum due to humanitarian reasons. Some senior regime officials fled to Iran.
- Local resistance factions in Damascus and other regime-held areas began to take control, leading to widespread defections among the Syrian military and government forces.
- HTS’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, declared victory and emphasized the end of the Assad regime and the beginning of a new chapter for Syria.
Global Reactions and Aftermath
- Turkey quickly signaled its readiness to cooperate with the new leadership in Syria, while stressing the importance of Syria’s territorial integrity.
- The United States called for a democratic transition process and inclusive governance in Syria.
- Russia expressed concerns about its strategic interests in the region but refrained from direct intervention after Assad’s departure.
- Iran saw a significant loss in its influence over Syria, as HTS and other factions rejected Tehran’s involvement.
Uncertain Future and New Dynamics
- Despite the fall of Assad, Syria faced a deeply fragmented future. While opposition factions and HTS took control of major cities, the country was still divided along ethnic and sectarian lines, and tensions among local groups, including Kurds, Arabs, and Sunni Muslims, remained high.
- The international community faced pressure to support a peaceful resolution, but the ideological differences between factions, especially HTS’s past connections with terrorist groups, complicated the process.
- Syria’s immediate future was uncertain, with the challenge of rebuilding the nation while managing international and internal conflicts looming large.
